Essential Knowledge


Coronavirus, synchronous failure and the global phase-shift

This detailed and thoughtful article by Nafeez Ahmed is published on the InsurageIntelligence Site from It is one of the most comprehensive pieces we’ve seen. See also this video interview with Nafeez with Asher Miller from Post Carbon Institute

Across the corners of the internet, you may find speculation about how the coronavirus will lead to an apocalyptic breakdown of civilization. On the opposite end, you will hear assurances that everything’s pretty much going to be fine except for, perhaps, an economic downturn and disruption to our normal routines. While it’s important to be aware of the range of possibilities, it’s also important to recognize that we are still very far from major civilizational collapse, but not immune to more specific crises.

This is not to be sanguine about the risks. One thing that ordinary citizens, policymakers and business leaders need to remember is the fragility of our tightly-coupled social systems and supply chains. In the coming months, this systemic fragility will be increasingly visible, and will come to define the scope for societal decision-making in an even bigger way than the virus itself…

Download PDF of full 29 page article


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